Mats Speculation for Cataclysm

[Kalyse]

Thanks Ualaa.
Its nice to have opinions.

I don't have any professions trained. I don't want to blow my entire bank roll on leveling alchemy for 5 guys, only to find that I have to spend another 20k on buying herbs in cataclysm and I have spent my entire wealth on leveling professions to a useless level.

[boxblizzard]

This.. for pre-BC ores anyways.

I'm concerned tho that when you can fly in Azeroth people will tend to want to farm the low level mats instead of paying 100g a stack.. even if it means they have to take some time away from leveling.

people are lazy, and will pay top price. business for ya

[Ualaa]

The lowest level items:
- Copper/Tin ore.
- Peacebloom/Silverleaf/Briarthorn.
- Strange Dust.
- Light/Medium leather.
- Linen/Wool cloth.

They'll spike in value initially.
Because with everyone in the starting zones, even if you want to farm your own, it will be extremely difficult to get enough in a reasonable amount of time.
Also, the majority of the new characters have level 80's with a decent amount of gold.

But, with the advent of flying in the old world.
And the initial price spike, which will make farming these mats much more worthwhile.
The greatly inflated price will not last long.

I did dailies faithfully, on three teams at 80th, purely for gold while I was leveling Alchemy.
Was easier to raise 3,200-3,500g a day in 3.5 hours, then to farm the herbs.
Farming level 80-85 content, selling what you farm, and using the proceeds to purchase lower level mats will be much faster progression through a tradeskill, then wasting time farming it all and not buying anything.
Plus, if you have 5k in the bank, it's a lot easier to be lazy.

The timing of the release of these items will be important.
Copper might reach 100g/stack again, during the first week; but there's no chance it will sell that well by the end of week 2.
Similarly, you'll want to sit on Saronite/Borean Leather for at least 5-6 weeks; you will get a decent profit initially, but the price won't spike until the majority of the new toons reach the point where most need the same limited resource at the same time.

[Kalyse]

Saronites on a reall bottom on my server. Its at 15G a stack now.

Should I dump all my eternals also? And also dump Frost Lotuses?

[zenga]

Should I dump all my eternals also?

please do a server transfer and i'll buy your whole stock at a dumping price
if there is one thing a sure investment it's eternals, seen quite a lot of data to backup that statement

[Ualaa]

Chances are Eternals won't be worth a whole lot in Cataclysm.
But if you right click on them, the 10x whatever they turn into, will be a limited resource with a fairly decent demand.

I wouldn't stockpile them for Cataclysm.
But don't dump them, unless you get a decent price, as there will be some demand when toons are working on their 375-450 skill range.

[Kalyse]

Well I pick up all my materials at 50% market price now. I've realised that if I do a scan regularly I can get all the materials I need for my professions.

Five days ago I bought 60 Eternal Life for 600G and flipped for 1200G immediately to a private buyer. They are worth about 25G each. I bought another 30 yesterday for 15G each to get some gold back onto Alliance side (since I do arbitrage) and I'mwondering if I should stockpile some for Cata or just sell.

I bought also got some Eternal Shadows.

[Littleburst]

Eternals will always be needed to level up skills. Look what primals cost on your server.
It depends on what new craft are availible, if i'm correct new recipes will always be availlbe once you've reached the previous max level. If you're 440, you'll probably always have to craft epics with LW/BS etc to gain those last 10 points. Those will require eternals.

Somewhat similar to Iceweb spider silk, allthough i'm far from sure. I think that could be a good investment aswell.

[zenga]

If you wanna make a profit with eternals in the first week after cata, it will not be worth it. In the longer run, it will definitely be worth it. Eternals have decreased in price on my server with bout 2/3rd over the past month(s), lets say 6 weeks. Look at the price curve of bc equivalent. 100 gold in wotlk doesn't have same value as 100g in cata, take inflation into account. And I think if you invest 1g in eternals, you'll get 3-4g back in cata. Obviously if frozen orbs are lower in price, I buy those, as I'll be able to trade them for what the market needs.

[Tonuss]

I'm wondering if mid-level materials will be a much better bet. Having leveled every profession at least once, and most of them 2-3 times, I have always found the middle range to be the worst for finding materials in the AH. After all, lowbies can farm copper or peacebloom and both are found in huge amounts throughout starter zones.

But starting with briarthorn, or mageweave cloth, or mithril ore, supplies start to thin out pretty severely. I'm thinking that in the next couple of weeks I'm going to want to stockpile stuff like kingsblood, mithril ore/bars, silk/mageweave cloth, medium leather, and so on. I'm betting that if I went to the AH on my server right now, there would be page after page of linen cloth and copper ore, but only a handful of those other items. I think that's where the money will be within a week of the expansion going live.

I figure I'll also try to stockpile a fair amount of tBC materials as well, because those might be in shorter-than-expected supply as well, as people power-level their new characters. Remember, not only are there new races and new race/class combos, but the old world revamp means people will play just to see that content as well. Even if players slow down or stop altogether upon reaching tBC, they'll be able to advance those professions.

The weird thing is that it seems that Blizzard is working harder than ever to de-emphasize gold. You have fewer spells to buy anymore. Mount and riding skills are cheaper, and with the boost to the initial flying skill you don't really have to spend the 4k or 5k necessary to advance it. Gear looks easier and easier to get without spending gold. From what I've seen, quests will reward 8-10 gold, and I can only imagine what you will get from daily quests at 85 (20? 25? 35 per completion?). Right now I've got about 25,000 gold across my characters, and no real idea how to spend it. I'm looking to make more gold mostly out of inertia. This isn't a complaint, mind you. It's just that I keep stopping myself and wondering why I'm still trying to earn gold.