Yes you're right, that's the rule of independent probability. However, the formula I posted is correct. Over a group of runs, the *overall* chance of getting your desired item at least once is higher than a single run. Otherwise, no one would ever play the lotto. Here's the simple way to confirm the formula posted:Originally Posted by 'Frosty',index.php?page=Thread&postID=76408#post76 408
An item has a 50% chance of dropping. Each *single* run will always have a 50% chance of dropping, but we're adding up all the runs. Compare this to flipping a coin. A 50% chance of having tails on any given flip, but if we're given two opportunies, we have a 75% chance of getting tails on at least one of those flips.
(1-.5)^2=1-Y
.5^2=1-Y
.25=1-Y
Y=.75
75% chance of getting at least one tails with two coin flips. This same fomula works for drops in WoW, given that there are no problems with the random number generator seeding.
Visually, here's the possilbe results of two coin flips:
HH
HT
TH
TT
Clearly, 75% of those combinations contain tails, and since there's an equal chance of heads or tails at 50%, 75% is the final probability of having at least one tails on two coin flips.
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