Quote Originally Posted by 'Fursphere',index.php?page=Thread&postID=33188#pos t33188
Boylston -

I think I just figured out part of the equation you're not factoring in = Lightning Overload. 20% chance to instant cast a 50% damage spell that can crit at no mana cost. i don't know if EM makes the LO crit as well... probably not.

But, if the winds were in your favor, thats a possible of EIGHT instant cast spells hitting up to three targets, and four of those can crit (actually its 12 if you are in range for a follow up shock attack). In my own personal experience W/O NS in world PvP, so many times I've been trying to blast someone where they either go out of casting range or "not in front of you" .1 secs before the spell casts - Very fustrating. A good PvPer will see when you start casting (1.5 secs seems fast, but its not) and either get out of LOS, or get out of range. Its really a Shaman's only weakness.
You are correct in saying that the Monte Carlo-like analysis that I did above doesn't yet have LO procs. Again, if you read the very first post, you can see that LO will proc on at least one shammy 59% of the time-- it's common and not insignificant. I am 95% sure that EM does NOT guarantee a subsequent LO proc. But LO is the same for all shammies who put 40 points in Elemental, as is EM. The real tradeoff is ToW vs. NS.

To make it concise, a summary of the discussion thus far is:

1.) EM+Trinkets+Orc Racial+Chain Lightning = Guaranteed Large Damage Spike - Well geared, this is going to 1-shot a lot of people
2.) NS+(EM+Trinkets+Orc Racial+CL) = Instant Cast Guaranteed Large Damage Spike
3.) NS+(EM+Trinkets+Orc Racial+CL)+LO-Proc(s) = Insult to injury (59% of the time)

4a.) ToW+PewPewRotation = Better DPS and burst potential than PewPewing without ToW, even in PvP with resilience mitigating some +Crit (I think this bolded part is what the math shows)
4b.) ToW = Always available, not tied to a cooldown, but disappears if you drop a Fire Nova Totem


So, a 41/0/20 gets the advantages of 1.), 4.), while the 40/0/21 gets 1.), 2.) and 3.).


Ellay contends that the defining advantage of the 4xShaman combo in the uppermost ranks of the 5v5 arena is that he can transform 1.) into 2.). Instant cast >> any possible ToW advantage. I tend to agree with him, especially since you can tell by his comments that he's fighting teams who know what he's capable of and keep out of his LoS/range as much as possible in hopes that he'll disco/drop/fall asleep before the battle is over. He HAS to play a cat and mouse game where he goes in and pops 1-2 instant cast spells in order to kill one. As he's mentioned, often times the dodge-ball game continues while they try to rez the unlucky bastard who ate the first NS+EM+CL barrage. They play into his hand to some extent by allowing 3min to pass and resetting this brutal ability.

ToW appears (from the math, anyhow) to be a really decent choice for PvP if you are not tightly constraining it to fit Ellay's 1900+ rated 5v5 matches. It's probably a decent choice for a Battleground hound in AV who is going to play "mobile totem fortress" and pew pew the heck out of people with the support of other players. It's better sustained DPS and has the nice side effect of providing a LOT more double+ crit volleys of whatever spell you're throwing at them. That kind of player will STILL have the EM+CL burst capability, just with a 1.5sec cast time. (I know it's not as nice as instant, but it's still short). It's probably not also so far behind a NS build that you'd want to blow 400g respecing back and forth if your arena goals are far more modest. In theory, you could play four 0/10/51 Resto shammies as ranged casters in an arena, but I think we'd all agree you'd be horribly prepared for success in that spec. The original reason for exploring the math behind ToW is that I would have assumed that ToW provided almost no benefit for PvP due to resilience-- turns out that gut feeling is probably wrong.

Personalizing it, I'm not sure that I will immediately go to a 40/0/21 arena spec when my guys hit L70-- I have a lot of cash farming and BG honor farming to do before they are going to do anything other than suck in the arenas. If I can maintain a 1500 rating with the team for the first 6 weeks, I'd be tickled pink (and accumulating arena points). Keeping a ToW build for that interim period may not be best for arena, but it's probably going to perform much better than I originally thought.