From a realistic standpoint. When do you expect Cataclysm?

[Shodokan]

I understand there is no release date pertaining to this but i am curious what people think is going to happen. So far we know there will be three more patches before cataclysm... 3.3.3, 3.3.5,and 3.9. If they were to release them at 6 week intervals then we're looking at a release date after june (which is what Gamestop in the US is claiming it will be released)

I read a good prediction on MMO-Champion


You really think they're only gonna give a month of beta? I'd think again. They admitted the TBC beta was too short, and that the WotLK one allowed them to get out much better quality content (quality isn't subjective here, so there's no real opinion on it). Releasing it in the summer is just as good as releasing it any time besides major holidays like Christmas (although releasing it just after is better than releasing it just before).

Here's my current timeline predictions (these are EU dates, US dates for live patch releases would be a day earlier);
24 March: 3.3.3 goes live
31 March - 7 April: 3.3.5 hits PTR
8 April - 15 April: Beta goes out
12 May - 19 May: 3.3.5 hits live
23 June - 30 June: 3.9 hits PTR

That's my predicted timeline for the beta, even though it disagree's with my previous vote of may.
However, there's another timeline too. That'd be the Information release timeline;
18 March - 24 March: Class Previews/Mechanic Changes
24 March - 7 April: Beta pages start going active, official site and forums start changing/receiving additions. Additionally, we start seeing more and more "hints" from the blues of "something big" incoming. Keep an eye on Nethaera in particular.
8 April - 15 April: Beta site goes live, download goes up on bnet, keys go out

The floodgates started leaking with the mastery preview. I may be wrong with the above timelines, but at a quick glance, it seems about right. Since 3.9 is a little sketchy still, we don't know what it'll contain, although it's safe to say it'll also feature that Cho'gall event too. They'll fully open within the next month, of that i am sure. There's no doubt in my mind, but once again, i may be wrong.

With these timelines in mind (again, they may be wrong), i'd predict a Cataclysm release of September, ready for the end of the summer, and another chance for Blizzard to cause millions of kids to get bad grades in homework again http://www.mmo-champion.com/Smileys/classic/grin.gif

An end-of-summer/Q3 release seems good since people will be returning home from long vacations, and it also means there's entertainment available for students when they aren't studying (besides sex and drugs of course http://www.mmo-champion.com/Smileys/classic/wink.gif).RI wouldn't doubt this at all. And the last patch for BC was ~ 2 months IIRC. So in all honesty it's looking like an august or later release date.

Yes this is "theory crafting" but i want peoples opinions.

[Siaea]

I'm thinking Novemberish.

[Maleick]

They will probably do six months of beta or so. I love blizzard becuase they want to make sure they get it right. However this takes a long time :p

My guess would be 2011.

[Drommon]

I'm thinking Novemberish.
^^^

[Hivetyrant]

I would put money on late novermber.

If they miss that window, it might come out late Q1 (after everyone has recovered from christmas spending)

[MiRai]

I love blizzard becuase they want to make sure they get it right.
I hope you're trolling.

Back on topic:
I don't have an estimate of dates. But I'm going to assume that this will be the longest beta we've seen yet. In addition to giving us new zones/instances/raids from 80-85 they're revamping [quest flow and/or layout] over 40 old world zones. Obviously some zones aren't getting hit as hard in the 'cataclysm' but it's a lot of content to revamp and make sure it's all working as intended.

[Zub]

Early November is where i put my money

[Fursphere]

End game raids are generally expected to hold the player base for ~6 months. (Naxx went live 11/08, figure 1-2 months for player base to level and start raiding, Ulduar went live 6/09, ICC 12/09 - see a pattern?)

3.3.3 is expected to go live very soon. (maybe next week?)

3.3.5 is adding a new raid instance. I bet it'll be mid to late April on the release - maybe even May. They're probably banking this will hold players for 4 - 6 months (typical raid life). (ICC = Dec ... +6 months = May... wow, Ruby Sanct is on the horizon? talk about predictable!)

The "opening" event for the next expansion will last approx 2 - 4 weeks. You've all seen the Gnomergon / Echo Isles information.

So - ICC + BG LFG System + Ruby Sanct + Cat. Opening Event = ~ 1 full year of content (lolwut?)

Start the timer when ICC was released in December.... now do the math. With all these things on the horizon - November / December at the VERY earliest. I think its pretty obvious at this point.

[Ualaa]

Put my down for Nov 16th, for the Cataclysm release date pool.

[Fursphere]

Also, keep an eye out for an of WoW's competitors releasing anything in that time frame - Blizzard / Activision will adjust Cataclysm to match the competing products release date.

If you don't believe me, look at the previous two expansion packs... (and major content patches)

[Shodokan]

End game raids are generally expected to hold the player base for ~6 months. (Naxx went live 11/08, figure 1-2 months for player base to level and start raiding, Ulduar went live 6/09, ICC 12/09 - see a pattern?)

3.3.3 is expected to go live very soon. (maybe next week?)

3.3.5 is adding a new raid instance. I bet it'll be mid to late April on the release - maybe even May. They're probably banking this will hold players for 4 - 6 months (typical raid life). (ICC = Dec ... +6 months = May... wow, Ruby Sanct is on the horizon? talk about predictable!)

The "opening" event for the next expansion will last approx 2 - 4 weeks. You've all seen the Gnomergon / Echo Isles information.

So - ICC + BG LFG System + Ruby Sanct + Cat. Opening Event = ~ 1 full year of content (lolwut?)

Start the timer when ICC was released in December.... now do the math. With all these things on the horizon - November / December at the VERY earliest. I think its pretty obvious at this point.

My friend has acheivements from 4/14/09 for Ulduar.

Naxx/maly/saph = november
Ulduar = april
Toc = august
Onixia = november
Icc = december

So there was a 6 month period between naxx and ulduar, a 5 months period till TOC, and a 5 month period till ICC with ony being thrown in as a random addition (which is what ruby is suppose to be)

But yeah i understand what you are saying.

[Mosg2]

November 16th too.

[Fursphere]

My friend has acheivements from 4/14/09 for Ulduar.

Naxx/maly/saph = november
Ulduar = april
Toc = august
Onixia = november
Icc = december

So there was a 6 month period between naxx and ulduar, a 5 months period till TOC, and a 5 month period till ICC with ony being thrown in as a random addition (which is what ruby is suppose to be)

But yeah i understand what you are saying.

Lol - totally forgot about ToC and Onyxia (which was a 5 yr anniversary raid, but still an end game raid). /facepalm.

If you want more evidence to a Nov release, Gamestop had it posted as a 11/1/2010 date. Now, everybody assumes thats just a placeholder date and all - so why'd they remove the date? (Me thinks Blizzard bitch slapped them, because it was a leak, not a placeholder)

If you look at the history of WotLK leaks - all sites with accurate information got cease and desist orders. The ones with crap info got left alone....

[Zaelar]

t7 to t8 was a longer wait then the others.
Ulduar(april) - Toc(august) = 4 months
Toc(august) - Icc(dec) = 4 months

[Shodokan]

t7 to t8 was a longer wait then the others.
Ulduar(april) - Toc(august) = 4 months
Toc(august) - Icc(dec) = 4 months

They had been working on ICC the entire expansion though.

[Ogloo]

put me down for after dec. 21 2012.. so we will never play cata i guess..

** sorry must watched 2012 which btw was beast.

[Stealthy]

Blizzard traditionally aims for a November launch with the WoW games since it coincides with the anniversary of Warcraft franchise.

WoW classic was launched November 2004 (on the 10th anniversary of Warcraft)

Burning Crusade was supposed to launch in November 2006 but was pushed back to Jan 2007 (ref here (http://au.gamespot.com/news/6160380.html)).

Wrath of the Lich King was launched in November 2008

Note the 2 year gap in between each release.

Cheers,
S.

[EaTCarbS]

I'm thinking Novemberish.
this

[Maxion]

I've been thinking november myself too, and reading this thread only enforces it.

[Fat Tire]

Nov is my vote also.

However, I am really curious or wanting the Battlechest including wrath and I am hoping its for sale before cata.

[Boylston]

Blizzard traditionally aims for a November launch with the WoW games since it coincides with the anniversary of Warcraft franchise.

WoW classic was launched November 2004 (on the 10th anniversary of Warcraft)

Burning Crusade was supposed to launch in November 2006 but was pushed back to Jan 2007 (ref here (http://au.gamespot.com/news/6160380.html)).

Wrath of the Lich King was launched in November 2008

Note the 2 year gap in between each release.

Cheers,
S.

Correlation here only... The causal relationship is that the late November - Early December timeframe is a huge holiday spend time for most people. Launching a game for the Christmas shopping season is a very smart sales strategy, it's not sentimental.

[Kalros]

One major factor that nobody has mentioned so far is that Blizzard now falls under the umbrella of Activi$ion. And I'm sure if it were up to Bobby Kotick, we'd be seeing a new WoW expansion on a yearly basis. Though I'm sure that Blizzard holds a good portion of their independence still, they definitely have these Activi$ion execs whispering in their ears, telling them to work faster and get it out sooner rather than later.

My vote: September 7th.

[Gormand]

Im going to say
3-4 months after Starcraft 2 hits
or
Late November

Whichever comes second.
So if starcraft gets further delayed and doesnt hit until Sep/Oct I think they will hold off until Jan for Cat.

[alcattle]

comment, I do think they will do something to get new people started playing Cata. No way people would buy 3 games to "Start" Cata, so their will have to be a one box way to get cata ready, like the battle chest does for WotLK. Might be a month~ or so later but it has to happen.

[jinkobi]

It's all about the $$$$$$$$$$.

Games are released in quarters meaning they divide the year up into 4 parts. They do this for several reasons but one big reason is quarterly stock reports. The only quarter they could make this year is Q4 which is Oct, Nov, Dec.

Soooo like most everyone here I'd expect it around Nov/Dec. Or as another wise soul pointed out 6 months from the release of the BETA.

[jrkilroy]

comment, I do think they will do something to get new people started playing Cata. No way people would buy 3 games to "Start" Cata, so their will have to be a one box way to get cata ready, like the battle chest does for WotLK. Might be a month~ or so later but it has to happen.


Interesting point.

I haven't been following the Cataclysm press info all that closely, but I wonder, since they are revamping the old world anyway if they are going to allow people to just buy Cataclysm as a starter? Maybe bundle BC and WotLK into a warchest...

Probably not, but your comment got me thinking...

[alcattle]

Interesting point.

I haven't been following the Cataclysm press info all that closely, but I wonder, since they are revamping the old world anyway if they are going to allow people to just buy Cataclysm as a starter? Maybe bundle BC and WotLK into a warchest...

Probably not, but your comment got me thinking...
I will almost guarentee you need WotLK to play Cata. That was my thinking on the 3-pack starter box, with it going at $39 and Cata will be $49/$69

[Shodokan]

I will almost guarentee you need WotLK to play Cata. That was my thinking on the 3-pack starter box, with it going at $39 and Cata will be $49/$69

blizzard already stated at blizzcon iirc that it will be 39.99 (cata)

[Kicksome]

I got my Wrath beta keys at the end of Aug. and the game was out Nov 13th.

So that's about 75 days after the beta invites were sent out in any sorta of mass quantity.

So I'm thinking they'll release Cat sometime in the 3rd quarter of the year. That means beta key would have to start going out around Mid-year (3 more months).

If it's Nov/Dec timeframe, that means that there are 8 more months without any real content (maybe a crappy raid boss). I think that's way too long.

[suprafro]

Hoping that the next gear reset doesn't happen any sooner then November, Q1 2011 would be nice but I don't think they will wait that long unfortunatly

[Shodokan]

I got my Wrath beta keys at the end of Aug. and the game was out Nov 13th.

So that's about 75 days after the beta invites were sent out in any sorta of mass quantity.

So I'm thinking they'll release Cat sometime in the 3rd quarter of the year. That means beta key would have to start going out around Mid-year (3 more months).

If it's Nov/Dec timeframe, that means that there are 8 more months without any real content (maybe a crappy raid boss). I think that's way too long.

This isnt really any different than the last parts of BC though.

We got BT, then ZA, then SWP and SWP lasted from when it was released till the expansion.

Kara > ssc/tk > bt/hyjal > ZA > swp total = 7

Naxx/sarth/maly > ulduar > toc > ony (5 year anniversary) > icc > ruby sanctumm total = 8

Realistically the hardmodes of instances count as another encounter so you can pretty much put them as seperate raids because of all the new mechanics.

So we got much more content in this 2 years opposed to BC.

[crowdx]

Aion created a lot of hype before it's release and I believe forced blizzard to compete with that game.
Blizzcon announced last year that it would be around (I think they said before) Blizzcon next year. This really does not seem likely now with no beta even released at present, UNLESS they are thinking a much shorted beta testing phase.

[Zub]

This isnt really any different than the last parts of BC though.

We got BT, then ZA, then SWP and SWP lasted from when it was released till the expansion.

Kara > ssc/tk > bt/hyjal > ZA > swp total = 7

Naxx/sarth/maly > ulduar > toc > ony (5 year anniversary) > icc > ruby sanctumm total = 8

Realistically the hardmodes of instances count as another encounter so you can pretty much put them as seperate raids because of all the new mechanics.

So we got much more content in this 2 years opposed to BC.
In BC we also had Gruull and Mag, as well as a couple of outdoor bosses though.

[Shodokan]

In BC we also had Gruull and Mag, as well as a couple of outdoor bosses though.

forgot about the other t4 bosses, my bad.

the outdoor bosses like kazzak and doomwalker don't really count imo though.

[Ualaa]

According the Cataclysm forum, and the sticky posts contained therein...

The guy who is compiling all the Cataclysm stuff believes it will be a June/July release.
He mentions Blizzard began work on Cataclysm, prior to the release of Wrath of the Lich King.
And that at Blizzcon, Blizzard promised Goblin Rogues by this summer.

The only date Blizzard has announce is 2010.

[crowdx]

I think I am mainly looking forward to flying in the old areas, will save a ton of time leveling mining and herbs :)

[Fursphere]

BlizzCon 2010 was just annouced for October.

That pretty much nails a Nov. release - as the game will most likey be in open beta mode at BlizzCon on the floor.

[Maxion]

I think I am mainly looking forward to flying in the old areas, will save a ton of time leveling mining and herbs :)

Don't forget you will probably not be able to fly in azeroth until at least level 80 (78 after a while maybe).
So it won't aid your leveling of low lvl alts much (unless the multi seat flying mount comes out and you get a few of it or something).

[crowdx]

Well they may release a tome for flying in Azeroth after the game is released a while also :)

[Lyonheart]

Cata will be out BEFORE Blizzcon and Blizzcon will be all about the NEW MMO, SC2 and Dieblo3.

last year there was a few interviews, at Blizzcon, with Bliz devs saying they are "close" to releasing info on the new MMO. I'm betting that will be the big news at Blizzcon this year.

[Shodokan]

According the Cataclysm forum, and the sticky posts contained therein...

The guy who is compiling all the Cataclysm stuff believes it will be a June/July release.
He mentions Blizzard began work on Cataclysm, prior to the release of Wrath of the Lich King.
And that at Blizzcon, Blizzard promised Goblin Rogues by this summer.

The only date Blizzard has announce is 2010.

regardless of if he thinks it will be june/july. If there is no open beta you can be damn sure that the game will be buggy as hell and well... the beta would need to start next month for there to be true feedback for it if the intent is a release for july.

[KAC]

I really don't care when the release date is nor due I waste time wondering about it. This is a game and if you get bored with the current state you end your sub and do something else...that is if you have anything else to do. I would like to think that most people really don't give a rat's furry behind when it releases.

Companies are in business to make money, period. They will release the game when they feel like it since they know the player base will buy it if it sucks anyway. I'd bet money on one thing the game will be something on the lines of kill monster right-click to loot body kinda what you do now, what is the rush.

[MiRai]

I really don't care when the release date is nor due I waste time wondering about it. This is a game and if you get bored with the current state you end your sub and do something else...that is if you have anything else to do. I would like to think that most people really don't give a rat's furry behind when it releases.

Companies are in business to make money, period. They will release the game when they feel like it since they know the player base will buy it if it sucks anyway. I'd bet money on one thing the game will be something on the lines of kill monster right-click to loot body kinda what you do now, what is the rush.
Hahahaha
Well said!

[Stealthy]

BlizzCon 2010 was just annouced for October.

That pretty much nails a Nov. release - as the game will most likey be in open beta mode at BlizzCon on the floor.

Yep, especially as they are making a point to mention this:

Can I bring my video camera/camcorder into BlizzCon?
Video cameras are permitted for use in the BlizzCon exhibit halls. However, you may not record gameplay from any of the screens (with the exception of tournament gameplay), and recording the BlizzCon closing concert on Saturday evening is strictly prohibited.

[Stealthy]

I really don't care when the release date is nor due I waste time wondering about it. This is a game and if you get bored with the current state you end your sub and do something else...that is if you have anything else to do. I would like to think that most people really don't give a rat's furry behind when it releases.

Companies are in business to make money, period. They will release the game when they feel like it since they know the player base will buy it if it sucks anyway. I'd bet money on one thing the game will be something on the lines of kill monster right-click to loot body kinda what you do now, what is the rush.

lolumad? :D

[zenga]

I wonder if blizzard knows it themselves when they gonna launch it. Must be awesome to be a decision maker there, and while having no clue yourself reading all the predictions & conspiracy theories on the web.

I do understand that people who have been playing wow for years have seen & done it all and can only get excited with new end game content. However i've met a fair share of players who haven't seen even a quarter of all content and can't be bothered with when new expansions will be released.

KAC was spot on in his post if you ask me.

[jinkobi]

I really don't care when the release date is nor due I waste time wondering about it. This is a game and if you get bored with the current state you end your sub and do something else...that is if you have anything else to do. I would like to think that most people really don't give a rat's furry behind when it releases.

Companies are in business to make money, period. They will release the game when they feel like it since they know the player base will buy it if it sucks anyway. I'd bet money on one thing the game will be something on the lines of kill monster right-click to loot body kinda what you do now, what is the rush.

Well I don't worry about it- but it is nice to plan ahead in this game. Knowing the future can sometimes mean the difference between missing out on an opprotunity.

Example I'll give is Thunderfury. I've been farming the bindings for it a couple of months now and already have 10 elementium bars. One rumor is MC will be retuned to 85 but who knows. Not that knowing the release will make the binding drop any faster- I'd still like to know.

I really don't think anyone else here is really worrying about it either. We just like the game and one of the best things about it and WHY we pay 15$ or 15$X5 per month is for this new content. It's meant to come out regularly and one of the things that make the game fun and interesting. A new expansion is always huge and we all look forward to it like Christmas.

[Moorea]

It'll be july

[MiRai]

It'll be july
What are they going to do at Blizzcon to keep people entertained for 3 days? :)

[Ñightsham]

Pending what happens @ Blizzcon 2010, I'd say late November.

[Gormand]

What are they going to do at Blizzcon to keep people entertained for 3 days? :)

Diablo 3.
Which is one of the few things that can and will rip me away from WoW for a while :D

They may even have something on the new IP MMO they are working on.

[pinotnoir]

put me down for after dec. 21 2012.. so we will never play cata i guess..

** sorry must watched 2012 which btw was beast.

LOL what a good release date for a title called cataclysm.