From a realistic standpoint. When do you expect Cataclysm?

[Shodokan]

I understand there is no release date pertaining to this but i am curious what people think is going to happen. So far we know there will be three more patches before cataclysm... 3.3.3, 3.3.5,and 3.9. If they were to release them at 6 week intervals then we're looking at a release date after june (which is what Gamestop in the US is claiming it will be released)

I read a good prediction on MMO-Champion

You really think they're only gonna give a month of beta? I'd think again. They admitted the TBC beta was too short, and that the WotLK one allowed them to get out much better quality content (quality isn't subjective here, so there's no real opinion on it). Releasing it in the summer is just as good as releasing it any time besides major holidays like Christmas (although releasing it just after is better than releasing it just before).

Here's my current timeline predictions (these are EU dates, US dates for live patch releases would be a day earlier);
24 March: 3.3.3 goes live
31 March - 7 April: 3.3.5 hits PTR
8 April - 15 April: Beta goes out
12 May - 19 May: 3.3.5 hits live
23 June - 30 June: 3.9 hits PTR

That's my predicted timeline for the beta, even though it disagree's with my previous vote of may.
However, there's another timeline too. That'd be the Information release timeline;
18 March - 24 March: Class Previews/Mechanic Changes
24 March - 7 April: Beta pages start going active, official site and forums start changing/receiving additions. Additionally, we start seeing more and more "hints" from the blues of "something big" incoming. Keep an eye on Nethaera in particular.
8 April - 15 April: Beta site goes live, download goes up on bnet, keys go out

The floodgates started leaking with the mastery preview. I may be wrong with the above timelines, but at a quick glance, it seems about right. Since 3.9 is a little sketchy still, we don't know what it'll contain, although it's safe to say it'll also feature that Cho'gall event too. They'll fully open within the next month, of that i am sure. There's no doubt in my mind, but once again, i may be wrong.

With these timelines in mind (again, they may be wrong), i'd predict a Cataclysm release of September, ready for the end of the summer, and another chance for Blizzard to cause millions of kids to get bad grades in homework again

An end-of-summer/Q3 release seems good since people will be returning home from long vacations, and it also means there's entertainment available for students when they aren't studying (besides sex and drugs of course ).R

I wouldn't doubt this at all. And the last patch for BC was ~ 2 months IIRC. So in all honesty it's looking like an august or later release date.

Yes this is "theory crafting" but i want peoples opinions.

[Siaea]

I'm thinking Novemberish.

[Maleick]

They will probably do six months of beta or so. I love blizzard becuase they want to make sure they get it right. However this takes a long time

My guess would be 2011.

[Drommon]

I'm thinking Novemberish.

^^^

[Hivetyrant]

I would put money on late novermber.

If they miss that window, it might come out late Q1 (after everyone has recovered from christmas spending)

[MiRai]

I love blizzard becuase they want to make sure they get it right.

I hope you're trolling.

Back on topic:
I don't have an estimate of dates. But I'm going to assume that this will be the longest beta we've seen yet. In addition to giving us new zones/instances/raids from 80-85 they're revamping [quest flow and/or layout] over 40 old world zones. Obviously some zones aren't getting hit as hard in the 'cataclysm' but it's a lot of content to revamp and make sure it's all working as intended.

[Zub]

Early November is where i put my money

[Fursphere]

End game raids are generally expected to hold the player base for ~6 months. (Naxx went live 11/08, figure 1-2 months for player base to level and start raiding, Ulduar went live 6/09, ICC 12/09 - see a pattern?)

3.3.3 is expected to go live very soon. (maybe next week?)

3.3.5 is adding a new raid instance. I bet it'll be mid to late April on the release - maybe even May. They're probably banking this will hold players for 4 - 6 months (typical raid life). (ICC = Dec ... +6 months = May... wow, Ruby Sanct is on the horizon? talk about predictable!)

The "opening" event for the next expansion will last approx 2 - 4 weeks. You've all seen the Gnomergon / Echo Isles information.

So - ICC + BG LFG System + Ruby Sanct + Cat. Opening Event = ~ 1 full year of content (lolwut?)

Start the timer when ICC was released in December.... now do the math. With all these things on the horizon - November / December at the VERY earliest. I think its pretty obvious at this point.

[Ualaa]

Put my down for Nov 16th, for the Cataclysm release date pool.

[Fursphere]

Also, keep an eye out for an of WoW's competitors releasing anything in that time frame - Blizzard / Activision will adjust Cataclysm to match the competing products release date.

If you don't believe me, look at the previous two expansion packs... (and major content patches)