It seems to me, that around 1500 rating.. there is -extremely- varying opposition. Some times, we can just cruise to 1600, and opponents seem to be made of paper... they even die in pairs sometimes.
Then, at some times.. we are consistently meeting uber teams in full S4.. who just mow us down, both with superior survival, superior dps, and superior skills and tactics. My main often dies within a second. By the way, anyone else feel that warriors became insane with S4 gear? I saw one in EOTS yesterday.. he had 3x the amount of damage done as #2 in damage done. But I digress.
To conclude, I attribute this unpredictable arena matchup problem to a flawed arena system design. The whole team concept is making the near-1500 play very, very chaotic and unpredictable. A lot of people have good gear and skills from 2v2 and 3v3.. but 5v5 teams often aren't active for more than a few days. So what happens is that people create new teams and reform, all the time. This introduces a lot of unpredictability in the matchup system, because sometimes the new team is way above its proper rating, and sometimes it's way below its proper rating. As an example, today we met a team that took 16 rating from us, at ~1540. That team is now at 1800+. This situation makes it very frustrating to play arena if your performance roughly coincides with the entry point in the Elo system.
My solution: Remove the team construct. Introduce a persistent personal rating for each character, in each bracket.. that never resets, except on a new season. To match teams, the average personal rating for that bracket would be used, for the people that signed up for the rated game.
So for example: John, Jane and Jay signs for 3v3.. John has a personal 3v3 rating of 1600, Jane 1500, Jay 1400, so their average is 1500. This is the rating used to match them against an opponent. Wins and losses adjust their 3v3 rating according to standard Elo system rules.
What do you think? The Elo rating system was originally designed for chess, where there is no such thing as team rating, and no resets/reforms. Taking that system and applying it in an environment where you can repeatedly reset your rating, introduces a lot of instability and unpredictability in my opinion.
Edit: For reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
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