ToC & ICC loot drops weighted against the team

[jimbobobb]

I fully understand statistics


AND


the odds of a boss that can drop 13 items to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random.

Are contradictory statements
A truly random system does in fact include the possibility that you run that boss a thousand times and do not get your drop. That is the definition of random. A system that guaranteed you the drop once you had reached a statistical plateu is not a random system.

Your sample size cannot possibly be very large at all if we're talking heroics, and ridiculously small if we're talking a raid boss.

Also certain items drop more frequently than others, and the drop weighting seems fairly well done. You can check this yourself by looking at thotbott and wowhead drop ratings (which have very large sample sizes) versus the drop weightings listed on the wow armory. They match up pretty well.

Bottom line is yes it sucks to not get your drop. But it is just the luck of the draw. There is nothing in the code stacked against you in this case. That might be really hard to believe on an emotional level due to a streak of bad luck, but it is the truth of the matter.

[Catamer]

again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row.

I have seen lottos where the same 6 number happened more than once, but they didn't happen 8 weeks in a row and they happen in consecutive weeks either.

Bliz weights the items against the team formed, bring in different players and you get a different weights. I happen to bring the same team each time and see relatively the same drops over and over so much so that it's easier for me to just do the random heroics until I'm geared out in badge gear.

[genocyde]

My 4 abyssal runes in 6 runs in a 4 cloth caster 1 plate tank group disagree with your experiences, your theory, and your lottery....lotterizing (what did that really have to do with anything anyway?).

[Aenar]

...bosses with a 13 item loot table dropping the same two items 2-3 times in a row.

look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row.

Are you saying you've had an item drop 8 weeks in a row? Otherwise your 8-week quote doesn't hold up to a item NOT dropping 8 weeks in a row. If the boss drops 2 items out of 13, its very easy for a single item to not show up week after week. Some people are lucky, some people are cursed, and some items are meant to be rare.

[kadaan]

8 months of MC

No matter how easy Blizzard makes it, people will always complain. Anyone who played in classic knows just how LONG it took to get gear. I _never_ got my t1 pants on my rogue. 20% drop chance, so on average it takes just over a MONTH to even see it drop. Then you're competing against 4-6 other rogues in your 40-man raid for that single item. There was no tier token system. No emblem system. Even for your dungeon 1 set you spent weeks or months farming (I finally got my shadowcraft chest on my 51st ubrs run.)

Not really sure what to say to your "I fully understand statistics" statement, as following it with "to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random" completely contradicts it. If the same plate item NEVER dropped 10 times in a row, THAT would be proof that the system isn't random.

"again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row."
How many numbers are there in the lottery? More than 13 I would imagine. Find me a lottery that only has 13 numbers and I'll give you a list of the hundreds of times the same number was chosen 8 weeks in a row.

[falsfire3401]

No matter how easy Blizzard makes it, people will always complain. Anyone who played in classic knows just how LONG it took to get gear. I _never_ got my t1 pants on my rogue. 20% drop chance, so on average it takes just over a MONTH to even see it drop. Then you're competing against 4-6 other rogues in your 40-man raid for that single item. There was no tier token system. No emblem system. Even for your dungeon 1 set you spent weeks or months farming (I finally got my shadowcraft chest on my 51st ubrs run.)

Not really sure what to say to your "I fully understand statistics" statement, as following it with "to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random" completely contradicts it. If the same plate item NEVER dropped 10 times in a row, THAT would be proof that the system isn't random.

"again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row."
How many numbers are there in the lottery? More than 13 I would imagine. Find me a lottery that only has 13 numbers and I'll give you a list of the hundreds of times the same number was chosen 8 weeks in a row.

QFT. The old system sucked royally. I raided in 40-man days. 6 nights a week, 5-6 hours a night, and sometimes went 5-6 weeks without getting a new item once I was "relatively" geared. In who knows how many months of BWL, I never got my tier2 gloves or bracers. They dropped only once each when I was there (and I was there 90% of the time), and I didn't have sufficient DKP to beat the other rogues present and win them. I was forced to run as combat/daggers for 70% of my raiding career because whenever swords did drop, I didn't win them. I wanted to be swords, but was forced into daggers because those were the epics I had.


Anyhow, back to the root message of this thread. We actually just lost our MT/raid leader/unofficial GM because of exactly this loot randomness. He's frustrated with the fact that we've been running ICC since it came out, and at the same time we're disenchanting some drops already because they ALWAYS drop, and also some people have yet to even see an upgrade for them drop out of ICC. The ridiculous amount of spellpower leather/mail/plate that drops all the time for our guild is VERY annoying, given that we're a 10-man guild we don't have alot of people that can use it. We also get a ridiculous amount of tank plate dropping, and he was the only plate tank. Our other tank is a druid. So lots of really good tank plate got sharded too...our healing paladins have nearly full sets of plate tanking gear that they will never use, because both of them have ret as their other spec

[Dramoth]

I'm not enjoying raiding, spending 4 hours to kill 0->4 bosses only to not win any rolls isn't fun to me.
the only fun I have these days is leveling up my alts and gearing them out.

you would think that a fresh new 80 in green/blues could be dragged through ICC or ToC non-heroics back-back to get at least something to wear.

I've done enough alts and enough runs of these instances to know that the gear drops are seriously weighted against the team.
if I bring a fresh warlock in with well geared(3 shaman and a pally) and run back-back ICC 5x I get the same drops of plate gear in at least 80% of the passes. if I bring a fresh pally through only cloth drops.

I fully understand statistics and the odds of a boss that can drop 13 items to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random. I can' only assume Bliz does this to prevent people from doing some type of leveling/gearing services.

I know I complained about the random dungeon finder not being random and they actually fixed that. I find the random dungeon finder is really random now.

This non-random drops is taking what little fun I have left in the game out of it. I feel like I just waisted 4 hours doing non-heroic ICC hoping for either cloth or a weapon, I would have been far better off just dragging the under geared toon through random heroic dungeons with the same team.

What I am doing with my tank is trying to do as many totc normal runs as possible for tanking gear and badges. As soon as I am sufficently geared, I will move onto trying to do the icc 5 man instances for more gear and badges. I geared up my rogue pretty quickly doing a few icc 5man normal runs and a lot of totc 5 man normal runs and now he is getting to the point where I can start running him through onyxia and totc 25 for more gear.

Once I get my tank to ICC10 ready, I will be dropping him back into standby and get back to working on my 5 box team they need a few more levels on them I think