LPS and Void crystals - keep or sell?

[magwo]

Not sure how these will be affected by the new economy in WOTLK.
I have a ton of LPS, GPE, arcane dust, void crystals..

Do you think it's most profitable to sell now, or wait until WOTLK has matured, and sell then to people who are levelling enchanting?

[Suvega]

Dump it fast, or wait till 6 mo past expansion.

3 months before, and 6 months after all markets CRASH.

[Stabface]

Well, on my server the market for enchanting mats has been steadily crashing since a couple weeks after S4. Almost -50% on LPS for example, GPEs have held up better but still down. Arcane Dust is dirt... I don't look at the Void Crystal market but I can't imagine it's much higher than the 2x LPS price cap.

I predict there will actually be a spike in prices at WotLK release, depending on which enchants are immediately upgraded in WotLK. Once it's closer to release you can simply check the trainer recipes and find out what old enchants people will still want because the new replacement doesn't come until 425+ skill. Furthermore, there will be people pushing to skill off the old materials, particularly those of us who are mainly disenchanters and did not push up to 375 skill yet. (next 1-2 month is time to fix this btw).

[Suvega]

From previous experience:

Current high end mats will crash before the expansion (no one will enchant gear tahts going to get replaced. No one will enchant quest gear).
Enchanting normalyl happens at the end of your gearing out (heroics / raids).
New enchants have diff mats, and currently there is no way to convert old to new.

Old mats will become valuable again when teh current HUGE surplus is exausted by people lvling enchanting, and lack of people farming Outland content. (This took about 4-6 months for BC).

THEREFORE: Mats will go steadly down as the demand to enchant items goes down as well.
Mats will stay low until demand exceeds supply + surplus.
Mats will spike back up when all surplus has been exhaused by D.K. profession lelving / altoholics.

So. Sell now, or wait till 6mo after expansion. up to you.

[Bovidae]

I have begun to thin out my inventory.

All the others are right, who is going to need Primals directly after the expansion? Nobody

It will take months until people are trying to level enchanting/smithing/etc from 325-375 on their DKs

[spoiler]I'm putting my investment into 1-300 leveling mats for BS, chanting and Inscription mats. Level 55 DKs wont want to go back and collect that stuff.[/spoiler]

[Kyudo]

From previous experience:

Current high end mats will crash before the expansion (no one will enchant gear tahts going to get replaced. No one will enchant quest gear).
Enchanting normalyl happens at the end of your gearing out (heroics / raids).
New enchants have diff mats, and currently there is no way to convert old to new.

Old mats will become valuable again when teh current HUGE surplus is exausted by people lvling enchanting, and lack of people farming Outland content. (This took about 4-6 months for BC).

THEREFORE: Mats will go steadly down as the demand to enchant items goes down as well.
Mats will stay low until demand exceeds supply + surplus.
Mats will spike back up when all surplus has been exhaused by D.K. profession lelving / altoholics.

So. Sell now, or wait till 6mo after expansion. up to you.

I tend to agree with most of this, however, there is still a market for enchanting mats. On the 2 servers I have a good awareness of the enonomies on, enchanting mats have dropped around 15% or so in price over the last 2 months. However, there is still demand there, mainly driven, i believe, by a growing alt population of chars people are trying to get to 70 before Wrath and gear up at least to a basic standard.

I've also noted that there is still a significant profit to be made in DEing to sell, over the last 3-4 weeks the price of crafted blues such as imbued netherweave sets and clefthoof leather sets has dropped so low, that they can be snapped up and DE'd for a 2-5g profit per time.

In terms of Outland mats in general, Suvega is also right to conculde that the prices of these will tumble in the weeks leading up to and during the early weeks of Wrath, the reasons for this are 2:

1) New professions will required a limited amount (if any) of these mats to level 375+ (exceptions to this are perhaps mats that are used for yellow/orange crafts at 375, that can theorietically be used to level to 400 or so, but may in fact be more expensive than buying the new generation mats). However, any demand on such "yellow/orange" mats will not really show itself until the general population actually start to consider levelling professions (2-3 weeks before release perhaps).
2) I predict that around 15-20% of the population of players in Wrath will be avidly running round with their new Death Knights during the first month or so. This will retain a sustainable active population in Outland to gather the mats required for the above, so supply will be able to keep up with any profession levelling demand.

However, Suvega's other observation is also correct, as markets are based on supply and demand. Go look in your AH and check to see how many auctions are up for arcane dust, likely between 300-1000... shitloads. Now check illusion dust.... I can virtually guarantee that there are many many fewer auctions of illusion dust up, and that probably the lower level mat is in far more expensive per unit than arcane dust. Although the only practical uses of illusion dust are levelling enchanting and twinking these days, the scarcity of supply (due to a low % of the population running 50-60 old world content) drives the prices up. Eventually, once the DKs progress from Outland to Northrend and people finish levelling their alts, HFP will be as dead as Duskwood is now, and SMV will be as quiet as Plaguelands.

Given all of this, as the poster above spoils, I'm investing in other things that I predict will rocket in price during the first 3 months of Wrath. These are the mats where demand will be medium to high, but there will simply not be the population available to gather it in sustainable amounts to meet market demand.

EDIT: Must L2 Spell

[magwo]

Given all of this, as the poster above spoils, I'm investing in other things that I predict will rocket in price during the first 3 months of Wrath

Care to give some examples? =D

[Lorune]

Inscription uses....

Sockets are made by... (people rerolling to this profession)

Doesn't take rocket science to know what he means

[-silencer-]

Given all of this, as the poster above spoils, I'm investing in other things that I predict will rocket in price during the first 3 months of Wrath

Care to give some examples? =D

Thorium Ore. Adamantite Ore. The ones that require a TON to hit the next mat level of crafted items.

BS/JC/Eng take so many mats to level, and it's not like LW, Tail, or Ench (through DE of tailor items) where there's an unlimited number of mobs to farm to get the mats. Alch is easy since it's usually just 1-3 mats needed, instead of 12-20 like so many BS skillups. If inscription does indeed use herbs, you'll see a bump in nearly all prices of herbs. However, due to the time it takes to farm a massive amount of ore for bars or prospecting, mining (or trading ores) will always be a huge moneymaker. I've watched thorium ore/bars go from 10-12g a stack a few months after the expansion to only starting to become available at 35-40g a stack. If Bliz actually gives a decent amount of trainable smithing items in WotLK, expect the price to further increase on all ores/bars - bronze, iron, mithril, thorium, fel iron, adamantite..

[Kyudo]

Well, I'm not in beta, but I am keeping abrest of the general vibe from what people are saying about professions in the expansion, along with making some assumptions based on past experience.

Here are some of my assumptions, my rationale for each, and my market conclusions:

1) Around 30% of the player base will go crazy for the new profession inscription. - As happened with JC in TBC. However only about 15% of the player base actually pursued it long term.
2) Early indications are that inscription will require lots of herbs to level. - Check any of the major news sites and it's already pretty clear.
3) Some of the player base will plan ahead and collect enough materials to power level to 300+, the majority will not, and will hence either have to farm for themselves, or be subject to the whims of the market. - My strategy relies on the assumption that the majority will not plan ahead, so I will be able to price gouge to meet the rising demand as people rush to level inscription.
4) Ore and bars are used in 3 professions, all of which will continue to prove popular - Blacksmithing, Engineering and JC all look like they are they each are going to give some nice bonuses in Wrath, BS in particular is getting some nice new functionality around socketing weapons. I predict many plate wearers will reroll from previous professions to take up BS when they see new skills emerging.
5) Everyone and their brother will roll a DK, some will persevere and make them a main or a significant alt, others will give up. - There will be hundreds of DKs running around in the 1st few weeks of Wrath, DKs are plate wearers, many of these guys will go for the professions already listed above, raising furhter the demand for low level herbs and ores.

Be warned, however, the above are ASSUMPTIONS, the usual precautions as apply to any stock speculation in Real life apply here: "The value of your investment may go up as well as down." I guarantee I'll misjudge parts of the market and end up selling some stuff at a loss, but with a balanced portfolio of stuff to sell I hope to walk away with healthy returns. Also note that I've virtually stopped investing in stock now, I have 9 bank alts full of goods on 2 servers, prices are already beginning to change and are guaranteed to fluctuate wildly the closer we get to Wrath and the more people speculate on what will sell and what wont.

EDIT: Plus what silencer said... good advice and analysis too.