ToC & ICC loot drops weighted against the team

I'm not enjoying raiding, spending 4 hours to kill 0->4 bosses only to not win any rolls isn't fun to me.
the only fun I have these days is leveling up my alts and gearing them out.

you would think that a fresh new 80 in green/blues could be dragged through ICC or ToC non-heroics back-back to get at least something to wear.

I've done enough alts and enough runs of these instances to know that the gear drops are seriously weighted against the team.
if I bring a fresh warlock in with well geared(3 shaman and a pally) and run back-back ICC 5x I get the same drops of plate gear in at least 80% of the passes. if I bring a fresh pally through only cloth drops.

I fully understand statistics and the odds of a boss that can drop 13 items to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random. I can' only assume Bliz does this to prevent people from doing some type of leveling/gearing services.

I know I complained about the random dungeon finder not being random and they actually fixed that. I find the random dungeon finder is really random now.

This non-random drops is taking what little fun I have left in the game out of it. I feel like I just waisted 4 hours doing non-heroic ICC hoping for either cloth or a weapon, I would have been far better off just dragging the under geared toon through random heroic dungeons with the same team.

The word "random" does support > 80% of the time. Its called a bad streak.

I have the same issues with the new 5 mans - the loot sucks. The drops I want seem to only drop when I don't bring the character that needs it.

Oh well, thats why its called farming.

I agree raiding for extended periods and not winning rolls on your drops isn't any fun. In my experience, I haven't won any loot in our group runs for nearly 2 months, until just recently, I wasn't losing rolls, the gear just wasn't dropping. I'm fortunate enough to be in a group where I can pretty much have my choice at whatever drops I need that are an upgrade, but that doesn't help you when the loot doesn't drop.

It always comes down to random loot is random, they could do much better IMO. There is nothing like clearing ToC and sharding every single drop except 1 or 2. Our raid group did this numerous times. They should have loot drops based on the classes represented. Instead of 6 hunter drops in a VoA group with NO hunters.

We were talking about this in guild vent last night. Blizz can't have loot tables favor the toons in the raid because it will result in people stacking certain classes in a raid, and not permitting classes that would get a chance at another gear type. I still think it's random, just a lot of bad luck.

Its random! I took my level 75 warlock though forged souls and got all the cloth items. belt..neck and wand in about 7 runs. I used the same 3 shams and pal tank. Now when I farmed my abyss trinks, i got 3, virtually back to back, when ToC first came out. I have ran it many many times since and have not seen another one drop.

Would a "Cache of Eregos" type system help fix the loot issue? What i mean is after each raid boss everyone loots the body or a box or whatever and receives a bag with a random goody in it. The random piece would depend on their class and the loot table for the boss. The loot would not be guaranteed and individual pieces would still have the same drop rate they currently do. For example, you are a caster and really want the new +sp dagger that drops off a boss at a rate of 25%. After downing the boss you get a baggy that has a 25% chance to give you the new dagger (and say a 15% change to give you some new boots or whatever else is in the loot table designed for casters, but only one item per bag is present). There may also be a % change to get no gear in the bag. If that were to happen the bag may contain a frost emblem and some gold or a gem or whatever.

As a non-raider, I have no idea if this system would be valuable or desired. From an outside perspective, it seems like a solution to loot drama, and grinding for weeks/months and not getting anything for your effort. Thoughts?

No, because then have you have the broken PvP system.

Run X BG Y times and get full season Z PvP gear.

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Originally Posted by Fursphere

No, because then have you have the broken PvP system.

Run X BG Y times and get full season Z PvP gear.

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As opposed to run X heroics Y times to get T9? hehehe

Hmm, good point.

Fuck it, give them what they want.

Unless you are both on 10 and 25 man raid teams and able to run the heroic versions, it would be very difficult to grind raids like you grind BGs. You can still only kill each boss once per raid per week. I do see your point though that if you are downing say 10 bosses per week, you could get geared rather quickly.

Isnt that what the whole emblem system is for? Run ICC 10 man each week, and your daily heroic and weekly raid boss and pull in some 15-30 badges a week. Every other week or so you will have enough emblems to buy a peice of gear. You know, to fill the holes when it doesnt drop.

This week we killed the first ICC wing in 10 and 25 plus the new VoA boss. 9 bosses and not a single tank item dropped. But I did get the weekly raid, 16 boss badges, and the weekly icc quest done so I did walk away with 26 badges this week from ICC. +2 a day from heroics.

I would say that you should look at the loot drops and do some research and use bagdes to fill in where your drops are lacking. For my tank I can get legs off Saurafang and the new VoA boss. Legs are going to be the last thing I buy with badges.

I am just speculating on a loot system that has more individual rewards or at least a better shot at the drops you want. It wouldn't replace the emblems. It would just make loot systems and rolls unnecessary since the loot is individualized.

I agree that the current system is rather disheartening at times.

I ran ICC10 three times earlier this week and kept seeing hunter drops. I looked up the boss tables and found that good hunter gear drops off every boss (unlike some other classes/specs, who have no gear dropping off some bosses).

So I ran my hunter through ICC10 today (six bosses) and got no drops, while a rogue got two weapons and a chestpiece.

Even more odd is that what used to be my "main" tank has run ICC10 five times and has gotten nothing, while my "other" tank has run it only twice and has both the tanking weapon and shield.

I understand the need for some randomness in the system, but it really is pretty poor when some people put in tons of time raiding and get nothing over more than a month, then can't get into raid groups because gear score is expected to be higher, while others run once or twice, get 3-6 drops, and everyone drools over their gear score.

The whole gear score elitism makes the bad random streaks that much worse.

At any rate, I wish they would reduce the raid loot tables by about a third, make emblems drop about 50% more than they do, and increase the number of items you can get with emblems. That would keep the unexpected RNG element but be more fair.

It really gets old raiding over time as a druid tank and seeing little to no drops. When something interesting does drop dps wise, even though I have more points, I let it go to the dps because I know it will do them more good then myself with so many dps checks to pass through. So, its just more raid raid raid tank tank tank blah bah blah. We've cleared up to PP in 10m. My last nice loot was the polearm off anub. I'm still waiting to see the staff off fugly, i mean rotface.

Its made me more interested in leveling up my mixed class group again. Pali and Shaman are at ~45 now so its off to strat to boost through there now. Hopefully I will solve some of the problem having the mixed class group: Pali tank: Plate, Holy Priest: heals cloth , Arcane mage: dps cloth, Shaman: mail Druid boom: leather. We'll see how it goes.

I'm still debating on the tank role. I know I wanted a pali in the group who could soak up any plate drops, and palis are op tanks for boxing, but my druid is icc10 tank geared and can take anything that heroics have to throw at him, I might just run my druid as tank till my pali gets geared.

Random can be rather un-random seeming.

If you've ever tried counting cards, playing Blackjack...
You keep a running count, which is essentially the number of exposed high cards vs the number of exposed low cards.
Each card is assigned a value, the system I used was K/Q/J/10's (-2), 9's (-1), 2/3/7 (+1), 4/5/6 (+2), A/8 (0)... and a side count on the Aces.
You practice a bunch, until you instantly know the value of single cards, and the combined value of any two or three cards.

Then whatever the running count, you divide this by the number of half decks remaining, to get a "true count".
And you base your playing and betting decisions on the true count.

Depending on the game (rules) you're playing, you might have a statistical advantage at a true count of +2 or more.
But what does that mean.
Let's say at +2, you have half a percentage in your favor.
Assume the true count is +9, which almost never happens... that correlates to 4% in your favor.

With 4% in your favor, in the long run, you'll win 52 in 100 hands, but lose 48 in 100 hands.
Chances are, you'll have a larger bet out, which is good when the deck is favorable like this.
But you'll still lose 48% of the time, even with a monumental percentage in your favor.
That's basically fluctuation.


Well wow boss drops, aren't weighted towards drops which have not occurred recently.
Even when things are weighed in your favor drastically, you won't get the drop/card you want all the time.
So, it is pretty random what drops on a given night.

This week I did the ICC instances (normal) when I could. I got 0 tank drops. Week before I ran PoS and FoS once and got 4 tank drops, lol. I won't even get into the 8 months of MC I ran for Sulfuras, only to lose the roll to a Holy Paladin . . .

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Originally Posted by Coltimar

8 months of MC

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'nuff said

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Originally Posted by Coltimar

This week I did the ICC instances (normal) when I could. I got 0 tank drops. Week before I ran PoS and FoS once and got 4 tank drops, lol. I won't even get into the 8 months of MC I ran for Sulfuras, only to lose the roll to a Holy Paladin . . .

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And people wonder why I take the time to farm first boss in kara, tiger and raptor in zg, all of mc, and often bwl by myself every week....

my fresh 80 alternates wear almost nothing from ICC non-heroic, not because I didn't try. I ran them through enough that I'm sick of the whole place. bosses with a 13 item loot table dropping the same two items 2-3 times in a row. All of my fresh 80 alternates have gear from triumph badges, crafted items or crafted/purchased weapons. There is no point in doing ICC since nothing I can never use drops there. It's 5x the work with 1/10 the reward. screw bliz for making me waste my time there thinking I could gear up quickly. It's easier to buy a hilt from the AH and get a good weapon that way.

it's funny how many people try to teach me statistics.... look at it this way. if you played lotto and the #1 ball came up every week for 8 weeks. At what point do you start questioning that there is something wrong or do you just go into infinite discussion on how it's perfectly normal for the #1 ball to always drop, in theory it has the same chance to drop each time.

It's a shame I'm not playing lotto because then I could just switch and start using the #1 when I buy a ticket, however I'm not and it's not a case where I saw all of the other items drop except the one I wanted, it's a very limited number of items that drop, some 2-3 items out of the 13 total that boss can drop.

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Originally Posted by Catamer

I fully understand statistics


AND


the odds of a boss that can drop 13 items to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random.

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Are contradictory statements
A truly random system does in fact include the possibility that you run that boss a thousand times and do not get your drop. That is the definition of random. A system that guaranteed you the drop once you had reached a statistical plateu is not a random system.

Your sample size cannot possibly be very large at all if we're talking heroics, and ridiculously small if we're talking a raid boss.

Also certain items drop more frequently than others, and the drop weighting seems fairly well done. You can check this yourself by looking at thotbott and wowhead drop ratings (which have very large sample sizes) versus the drop weightings listed on the wow armory. They match up pretty well.

Bottom line is yes it sucks to not get your drop. But it is just the luck of the draw. There is nothing in the code stacked against you in this case. That might be really hard to believe on an emotional level due to a streak of bad luck, but it is the truth of the matter.

again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row.

I have seen lottos where the same 6 number happened more than once, but they didn't happen 8 weeks in a row and they happen in consecutive weeks either.

Bliz weights the items against the team formed, bring in different players and you get a different weights. I happen to bring the same team each time and see relatively the same drops over and over so much so that it's easier for me to just do the random heroics until I'm geared out in badge gear.

My 4 abyssal runes in 6 runs in a 4 cloth caster 1 plate tank group disagree with your experiences, your theory, and your lottery....lotterizing (what did that really have to do with anything anyway?).

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...bosses with a 13 item loot table dropping the same two items 2-3 times in a row.

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look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row.

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Are you saying you've had an item drop 8 weeks in a row? Otherwise your 8-week quote doesn't hold up to a item NOT dropping 8 weeks in a row. If the boss drops 2 items out of 13, its very easy for a single item to not show up week after week. Some people are lucky, some people are cursed, and some items are meant to be rare.

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Originally Posted by Coltimar

8 months of MC

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No matter how easy Blizzard makes it, people will always complain. Anyone who played in classic knows just how LONG it took to get gear. I _never_ got my t1 pants on my rogue. 20% drop chance, so on average it takes just over a MONTH to even see it drop. Then you're competing against 4-6 other rogues in your 40-man raid for that single item. There was no tier token system. No emblem system. Even for your dungeon 1 set you spent weeks or months farming (I finally got my shadowcraft chest on my 51st ubrs run.)

Not really sure what to say to your "I fully understand statistics" statement, as following it with "to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random" completely contradicts it. If the same plate item NEVER dropped 10 times in a row, THAT would be proof that the system isn't random.

"again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row."
How many numbers are there in the lottery? More than 13 I would imagine. Find me a lottery that only has 13 numbers and I'll give you a list of the hundreds of times the same number was chosen 8 weeks in a row.

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Originally Posted by kadaan

No matter how easy Blizzard makes it, people will always complain. Anyone who played in classic knows just how LONG it took to get gear. I _never_ got my t1 pants on my rogue. 20% drop chance, so on average it takes just over a MONTH to even see it drop. Then you're competing against 4-6 other rogues in your 40-man raid for that single item. There was no tier token system. No emblem system. Even for your dungeon 1 set you spent weeks or months farming (I finally got my shadowcraft chest on my 51st ubrs run.)

Not really sure what to say to your "I fully understand statistics" statement, as following it with "to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random" completely contradicts it. If the same plate item NEVER dropped 10 times in a row, THAT would be proof that the system isn't random.

"again, I say look at any lotto game in the country and show me where the same number, any number, showed up 8 weeks in a row."
How many numbers are there in the lottery? More than 13 I would imagine. Find me a lottery that only has 13 numbers and I'll give you a list of the hundreds of times the same number was chosen 8 weeks in a row.

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QFT. The old system sucked royally. I raided in 40-man days. 6 nights a week, 5-6 hours a night, and sometimes went 5-6 weeks without getting a new item once I was "relatively" geared. In who knows how many months of BWL, I never got my tier2 gloves or bracers. They dropped only once each when I was there (and I was there 90% of the time), and I didn't have sufficient DKP to beat the other rogues present and win them. I was forced to run as combat/daggers for 70% of my raiding career because whenever swords did drop, I didn't win them. I wanted to be swords, but was forced into daggers because those were the epics I had.


Anyhow, back to the root message of this thread. We actually just lost our MT/raid leader/unofficial GM because of exactly this loot randomness. He's frustrated with the fact that we've been running ICC since it came out, and at the same time we're disenchanting some drops already because they ALWAYS drop, and also some people have yet to even see an upgrade for them drop out of ICC. The ridiculous amount of spellpower leather/mail/plate that drops all the time for our guild is VERY annoying, given that we're a 10-man guild we don't have alot of people that can use it. We also get a ridiculous amount of tank plate dropping, and he was the only plate tank. Our other tank is a druid. So lots of really good tank plate got sharded too...our healing paladins have nearly full sets of plate tanking gear that they will never use, because both of them have ret as their other spec :)

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Originally Posted by Catamer

I'm not enjoying raiding, spending 4 hours to kill 0->4 bosses only to not win any rolls isn't fun to me.
the only fun I have these days is leveling up my alts and gearing them out.

you would think that a fresh new 80 in green/blues could be dragged through ICC or ToC non-heroics back-back to get at least something to wear.

I've done enough alts and enough runs of these instances to know that the gear drops are seriously weighted against the team.
if I bring a fresh warlock in with well geared(3 shaman and a pally) and run back-back ICC 5x I get the same drops of plate gear in at least 80% of the passes. if I bring a fresh pally through only cloth drops.

I fully understand statistics and the odds of a boss that can drop 13 items to only drop the same plate item 80% of the time is not random. I can' only assume Bliz does this to prevent people from doing some type of leveling/gearing services.

I know I complained about the random dungeon finder not being random and they actually fixed that. I find the random dungeon finder is really random now.

This non-random drops is taking what little fun I have left in the game out of it. I feel like I just waisted 4 hours doing non-heroic ICC hoping for either cloth or a weapon, I would have been far better off just dragging the under geared toon through random heroic dungeons with the same team.

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What I am doing with my tank is trying to do as many totc normal runs as possible for tanking gear and badges. As soon as I am sufficently geared, I will move onto trying to do the icc 5 man instances for more gear and badges. I geared up my rogue pretty quickly doing a few icc 5man normal runs and a lot of totc 5 man normal runs and now he is getting to the point where I can start running him through onyxia and totc 25 for more gear.

Once I get my tank to ICC10 ready, I will be dropping him back into standby and get back to working on my 5 box team :D they need a few more levels on them I think :D