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You have a 40% chance per cast of Arcane Blast to proc Missile Barrage.
In other words, you have a 60% chance per cast that you will not get the proc.
You can calculate the chance of at least one proc quite easily.
On 1 casts (1.00 - (0.60)) = 0.40 = 40% Proc Chance.
On 2 casts (1.00 - (0.60 x 0.60) = 64% Proc Chance.
On 3 casts (1.00 - (0.36 x 0.60) = 78.4% Proc Chance.
On 4 casts (1.00 - (0.216 x 0.60) = 87.04% Proc Chance.
So a good chance that it will proc by 4 =)
lol so my guesstimate of 80-90% is pretty accurate :)
So what's the chance of a proc on 5 casts of AB?
.077 chance it wont proc, so basically a 92.3% chance to proc. 4 is your best bang for buck due to dimishing returns on the chance and by that I mean it isnt worth casting #5 for a 5% increased chance to proc. I think I will stick to 4AB1AM for now.
Ill have to run some tests and experiment. I also wanna switch my arcane macro to a clicker to see if i can boost my dps even more.
I was looking at damage meters, and noticed that since the patch, a lot more of my DPS has come from arcane missiles. When the procced missiles goes off, it casts it extremely fast, doing more damage in the course of one GCD than an entire cast of arcane blast.
Since the change I haven't had to use mage armor for the mana regen any more, I use molten armor for more crit from spirit. I wouldnt be surprised if 5 AB before the AM would result in higher DPS on a more consistent basis. I was watching some of the crits from AB, and i hit one for 13k 2x in a row, and a 10k right before that. I always felt that casting AM was a DPS loss, and only a filler to save mana, but according to recount, missiles are around 35-45% of my overall dps now. Me and another 5 boxer did Naxx 10 last night, and it was a complete joke with our gear levels now. My warlock did 5k on patchwerk, and my mage hit 4.6k, and my not nearly hit capped shaman did a respectable 3.5k. Only my lock had mana issues, but the balance druid in the group was innervating him lol. I even respecced my lock for soul leech, and hes still my mana hog. And a threat hog too, thank goodness for soul shatter...
@daviddoran
can you link your 4k dps mage? I'm having trouble getting my average above 2k dps ... i will peak over 3.2k dps when i blow cd's off the start, but settle into 2k ... seems difficult to increase it ..Quote:
My mages regularly pump out 4k DPS, and ive seen 5k if I use heroism. Mana usage has greatly improved.
Also, I'm still not understanding why a /click macro is any better than a straight-up /cast macro ... LFM explanationz ... bring reasons .. checking facts ...
I would think /castsequence reset=6 Arcane Blast, Arcane Blast, Arcane Blast, Arcane Blast, Arcane Missiles would work fine for dps.