Same loot tables every instance run???

[Lazzadorabcd]

For the people playing all the same class

I play with 4 shaman and I have noticed that every instance i run i always get the same loottables.

I ran razorfen kraul 15 times to prove it and i never once got a different drop.

I have read that loot rolls to determine the loot table are influences by the class makeup/# of people in the grp/and the lvl of the people.

So I am wondering if this is true. I know a lot of people are 100% convinced its completely random but in fact if you were to change ay of the above criteria you in affect focring a random element.

The other end of it is that these lvling instances, the bosses have very few drops. Jsut the same its fun to think about.

I honestly have never gotten different drops on bosses i have done more than once on these shaman.

[Boylston]

Pretty sure it's totally random.

[Ughmahedhurtz]

The RNG is completely biased at times. :P

[Awbee]

I have it where I get the same loot 4 runs in a row and figure I'll be set on the next run and then it is completely different. So I say fudged- random. :wacko:

[daviddoran]

Completely random. Certain items are more likely than others to drop, so you are just experiencing that liklihood. If one item has a 60% chance and another has a 30%, on a given run you are more likely to see the 60% chance one, even if you run it over and over repeatedly.

Anyone who has a "method" of influencing loot is just using voodoo magic. And we all know the only ones who can do Voodoo are Troll Witch Doctors...

[Talamarr]

Completely random. Certain items are more likely than others to drop, so you are just experiencing that liklihood. If one item has a 60% chance and another has a 30%, on a given run you are more likely to see the 60% chance one, even if you run it over and over repeatedly.

Anyone who has a "method" of influencing loot is just using voodoo magic. And we all know the only ones who can do Voodoo are Troll Witch Doctors...

I think this is really what people see when they talk about artificial RNG seeds and what not. Just because there are 3 items on the loot table, doesn't mean each one has the same chance to drop. I think too many people assume equal drop chance for every item and they start seeing voodoo.

[Qlimax]

I remember pre-bc my guild would occasionally choose a random player as the raid leader and have them enter the instance. They thought this would change the raid ID and surprisingly, we got loot we had never gotten from MC. I dont know if this is just raids, i.e raid id, but if not, sorry for your luck.

[yarr]

i think my coin toss result seems to be based on what hat i am currently wearing >.>

[-silencer-]

Completely random. Certain items are more likely than others to drop, so you are just experiencing that liklihood. If one item has a 60% chance and another has a 30%, on a given run you are more likely to see the 60% chance one, even if you run it over and over repeatedly.

Anyone who has a "method" of influencing loot is just using voodoo magic. And we all know the only ones who can do Voodoo are Troll Witch Doctors...

While it may seem not-so-random at times, I've played poker with friends thinking the same thing if I get on a rather unlucky streak. A lot of it has to do with cumulative probability. A boss that only drops an specific item 20% of the time will need to be run 10 times to have a 90% total chance of dropping that item. That means that even if you run a boss 10 times, there's a 10% chance of that item not dropping, and that's for an item with a 20% drop rate. It gets much worse for those 5% or 1% drop items!
The simple formula for how many runs (X) to have a total chance (Y) of a specific item drop (Z) is the following:
((1-Z)^X)=1-Y.
For example, you really want a very rare item, so you want a 90% of getting it in a given night (As long as the drop rate is less than 100%, you can NEVER have a 100% of getting it even for an impossible number of runs). Unfortunately the item only has a 5% drop rate on the boss. You'll have to run the boss (1-.1)^x=1-.9 times.
(1-.1)^x=1-.9
.9^x=.1
x=22
22 runs to have a 90% chance of getting a 5% drop item from a boss in at least one of those runs. Grind away!

[Frosty]

A boss that only drops an specific item 20% of the time will need to be run 10 times to have a 90% total chance of dropping that item. That means that even if you run a boss 10 times, there's a 10% chance of that item not dropping, and that's for an item with a 20% drop rate. It gets much worse for those 5% or 1% drop items!
I'm not sure it works out quite that way... every time you run the instance..you have the same 20% chance (assuming it is in fact 20% chance) to drop the item. It doesn't matter if you run it 100 times..you still only have a 20% chance each time. While odds should say that you should get it by then..there is still a chance you won't....always. :)

[-silencer-]

A boss that only drops an specific item 20% of the time will need to be run 10 times to have a 90% total chance of dropping that item. That means that even if you run a boss 10 times, there's a 10% chance of that item not dropping, and that's for an item with a 20% drop rate. It gets much worse for those 5% or 1% drop items!
I'm not sure it works out quite that way... every time you run the instance..you have the same 20% chance (assuming it is in fact 20% chance) to drop the item. It doesn't matter if you run it 100 times..you still only have a 20% chance each time. While odds should say that you should get it by then..there is still a chance you won't....always. :)
Yes you're right, that's the rule of independent probability. However, the formula I posted is correct. Over a group of runs, the *overall* chance of getting your desired item at least once is higher than a single run. Otherwise, no one would ever play the lotto. Here's the simple way to confirm the formula posted:
An item has a 50% chance of dropping. Each *single* run will always have a 50% chance of dropping, but we're adding up all the runs. Compare this to flipping a coin. A 50% chance of having tails on any given flip, but if we're given two opportunies, we have a 75% chance of getting tails on at least one of those flips.
(1-.5)^2=1-Y
.5^2=1-Y
.25=1-Y
Y=.75
75% chance of getting at least one tails with two coin flips. This same fomula works for drops in WoW, given that there are no problems with the random number generator seeding.

Visually, here's the possilbe results of two coin flips:
HH
HT
TH
TT

Clearly, 75% of those combinations contain tails, and since there's an equal chance of heads or tails at 50%, 75% is the final probability of having at least one tails on two coin flips.

[Frosty]

A boss that only drops an specific item 20% of the time will need to be run 10 times to have a 90% total chance of dropping that item. That means that even if you run a boss 10 times, there's a 10% chance of that item not dropping, and that's for an item with a 20% drop rate. It gets much worse for those 5% or 1% drop items!
I'm not sure it works out quite that way... every time you run the instance..you have the same 20% chance (assuming it is in fact 20% chance) to drop the item. It doesn't matter if you run it 100 times..you still only have a 20% chance each time. While odds should say that you should get it by then..there is still a chance you won't....always. :)
Yes you're right, that's the rule of independent probability. However, the formula I posted is correct. Over a group of runs, the *overall* chance of getting your desired item at least once is higher than a single run. Otherwise, no one would ever play the lotto. Here's the simple way to confirm the formula posted:
An item has a 50% chance of dropping. Each *single* run will always have a 50% chance of dropping, but we're adding up all the runs. Compare this to flipping a coin. A 50% chance of having tails on any given flip, but if we're given two opportunies, we have a 75% chance of getting tails on at least one of those flips.
(1-.5)^2=1-Y
.5^2=1-Y
.25=1-Y
Y=.75
75% chance of getting at least one tails with two coin flips. This same fomula works for drops in WoW, given that there are no problems with the random number generator seeding.

Visually, here's the possilbe results of two coin flips:
HH
HT
TH
TT

Clearly, 75% of those combinations contain tails, and since there's an equal chance of heads or tails at 50%, 75% is the final probability of having at least one tails on two coin flips.
*Patooy* I /spit appon your l33t math skills!!!! :P

I just want to add that if you throw Blizzard RNG into your 2 coin flips you could get the following:

HH
HT
TH
TT
OMG Blizzard stole my coin!

Ok, I'm done playing devil's advocate. ;)

[-silencer-]

OMG Blizzard stole my coin!

That's a frequent drop result for me. Especially when I run an instance 3 times in a row, and all 3 times I get the 5% drop item that I *don't* need. Thankfully, multiboxing allows me to always have a disenchanter on hand.

[Toned]

Reprisal got his totem of the void in like 2 hours farming mech... we are both 5 shaman groups and it took me 26-30runs just to get 4... finally got the 5th on like run #36. It's random ass luck ^^

[Mercurio]

Darned Binomial Distribution.

1st 20 runs of Heroic SP.... two Pauldrons of Wild Magic.

21st and 22nd runs of Heroic SP... two Pauldrons of Wild Magic.

Sure was easier outfitting the last two than the first two. :S

[yarr]

In 60 or so mech runs ive done in my life, ive only seen thoriumweave cloak once. I care about this because the first 40 runs were trying to get it on my druid tank. I finally got it to drop on my pally, who doesnt need it because it sucks for all non-druids.