Controlling Netherweave Bags on Cata (Long Post)

[Kalyse]

I posted this on a non multiboxing forum, but thought I would get a lot of useful feedback here also.
If any one here on dual-boxing has any advice which goes to the root of this post (which is getting professions on all my guys) please go totally off topic and rattle of anything which you think will help.

TL;DR Version:
- Can I control Netherweave Bags Market?
- What should the price be that I try and get for my bags?
- How are thousands of Netherweaves being posted currently at 3G a stack? Can I realistically buy out their supply. I've invested heavily in the past few days buying several hundred stacks, but the supply is still coming. I have NO problem buying below 3G.

-----------------------------------------------

Please read below for the longer version.

I always like explaining my background before I ask a question because I hope that you understand my motives and thus can provide better quality feedback.

I am a multiboxer who has just started to play WOW again after a very very long break. I have 40 characters which all need professions. They aren't all level 75, so I am working on that. However I have ten chars which are 75 and will be ready to go when Cata Hits and am aiming to get a lot more to level 75 for the profession cap requirement.

I have very little gold, I started with zero last month and I am now up to around 4k in liquid gold, and about 6k in materials. I figure that I can't invest my gold in professions before Cataclysm for a few reasons. Firstly, if I max out a handful of professions at 5k each, I can maybe get one team done with one profession each (So 5 professions). But I won't be able to make any gold because I will be investing too much in profession training, and then when Cataclysm hits, I won't have the liquid to be able to train up all my guys. So I made a strategy to only train ONE profession. This profession so far has been Enchanting.

I am making a slow low risk profit with Enchanting by scanning and disnechanting things on the AH. Anyway, to the point of my topic, I need as many teams with professions as fast as possible into Cataclysm at the most economical route.

I'm doing regularly Snatches of anything on the AH to buy up cheap materials, which I intend to sell back when Cataclysm hits for an inflated price. Then I will ride out the leveling wave for 3-4 weeks and then level my professions once prices take a MASSIVE drop, which I think they will as more people stop leveling and start farming for mats again. This is what I think will happen and how I have based my strategy around.

Anyway, I plan on selling all of my materials for an increased price and do not aim at controlling any markets. Any sale which is higher than my snatch price is a win for me. I'm hoping for some items to turn 900% profits but these will be few and far between because its hard to predict how the markets will shift and I want to balance my risk accross all markets. However, one market which I am 100% convinced will increase is Netherweave. I can't see how it cannot increase?

Currently, Netherweave on my server has just taken a massive dip. Farmers have been posting Netherweave in quantities of about 500 at sub 3G a stack. They are fiercly undercutting each other and the Netherweave bag market has taken a dip from 12G last week to 6G a bag now. There is so much Netherweave Cloth on the AH it is insane. I have taken it upon myself to buy out anything below 3G. I now have about 9000 pieces. I'm going to aim for 1000 bags CRAFTED for Cataclysm. Where all of my other purchases have been to buy and sell the mats with any profit I can make, I want to control Netherweave supply in order to see massive returns on my initial investment. I see this as a way to get professions on EVERYONE of my guys. If I invest 3k Gold buying 1k stacks of Netherweave (20,000 pieces), I hope to inflate the price of a stack up to around 15G when the patch comes.

This is going to be the first time I have ever tried to control a market and since I have been away for so long, I don't know if it is possible. This is my plan:


- 2 Days before Cataclysm buy all Netherweave Cloth on the AH for 8G or less. (Is this a reasonable price)
- Maintain a lack of supply of Netherweave Cloth on the AH.
- 1 Day before Cataclysm buy out ALL Netherweave Bags but do not post any on the AH.
- Hour before servers go down, empty the AH of ALL Netherweave and ALL Bags. List my bags at 20G and create a wall of Bags.

Should I flood? I don't want to miss out on sales and the bags are going to be selling in the dozens in my opinion. Should I be worried about buying too much Netherweave. My server is quite populated. Any strategies for controlling Nethweave is appreciated.

I don't know where the farmers are getting their supply of Netherweave from, but surely I can inflate the price by just buying it all up? How much gold do you think I will need to be able to do this?

Apologies for the length. TL;DR version at the top.

[Littleburst]

I'd suggest to read some of this:
http://www.justmytwocopper.org/2010/11/cataclysm-preparation-lessons-learned.html#more
"The biggest blunder was to simply craft a batch of goods from the materials that I had and to flood the auction house by listing them all at once. We're not talking small batches of 2-5 here, I'm talking Wal-mart sized batches of anything upto 50, seriously looking back I feel a complete nubcake."

""What Mistakes Have You Learned From While Playing the AH!


Trying to buy a market.
Not knowing the market.
Trying to go for the big score, instead of a bunch of little scores."


Justmytwocopper often adds stuff from loads of other goldblogs, this is a post like that with the title: "lessons" learned. I have absolutely no experience in trying to control a market, i gave several markets a shot which results in not having to worry about having no gold.

Personally, i don't think you can pull something off like that. You only need 1 or 2 active players to undercut you, who also have a guildbank filled with netherweave cloth and the prices will drop fast.

[Kalyse]

I think that the patch isn't normal circumstances though. We will see more new charcters created on patch day than any other day for the last 3 years. Maybe I am setting my sights too high. I will try and keep 10k in the bank to buy out any netherweave posted below a set amount. and hope that I can buy out all the supply fast enough.
I totally realise that someone could play me for an absolute fool.



If I buy out all the NW up to 10G and list my bags at 12G, I am trying to establish a Market Value of bags at 12G. I want to make it practically unprofitable for anyone to enter the market. One NW bag would cost 10.5 to make, so they would only have 1.5G profit.

The secret here is knowing when to stop buying out NW and getting out of the market I think. I need to play this one very carefully. But I don't think I should lose any gold, even if I buy out NW at 9G, the sheer quantity I have purchased at 3G will level it out to around 5G a stack.

Who knows. It could be that I don't even need to purchase out the NW market!

[Sam DeathWalker]

I try that once (not during a patch though).

Lets say you price at 20G per bag.

People who have been to lazy to put out their bags then jump on the AH from no where.

You don't know what to do when someone puts out netherweave cloth at a cost that would equal 20G a bag. If you buy it then you make no profit if you leave it then there isn't a shortage and people who will want to skill up will buy it and sell the bag at cost.

What if materials is put out at 19G, you gonna buy at a very high price and make 1G profit just to keep up the shortage? Rest assured others will be happy to make 1-3G profit so you have to buy at anything under 19G to keep shortage. When farmers see their cloth selling for 19G instead of the old 4G they step up their efforts and farm more putting more on teh AH.

I got like 3 banks (ya 3 BANKS full) full of netherweave cloth I don't have time to make bags and sell. I'll be able to make more bags then you can (but I don't undercut much just one copper).

[Littleburst]

People will definitely be farming Netherweave cloth as patch hits, seems a great idea.

[F9thRet]

I started doing this about two weeks before patch 4.01, and I manage to sell at least a dozen bags at 13-15 gold each every day. Now mind you this is on Gul'dan which is a low Alliance high horde server, with over all low population.

I imagine this well go up big time when Cata hits.

In fact, I've been making more gold off of it, then I have Frostweave bags for the last two-three months.

Stephen

[Ualaa]

If you have enough gold, you can control any market.
But, not sure how much gold is enough; I'd guess it to be a rather large amount.

Aside from a relatively minor cost for the thread, the formula holds true:
1x Stack of Netherweave = 1x Netherweave Bag.
To control the Netherweave Bag market, you need to control both Netherweave Bags and Netherweave Cloth.

To control a market, you'd have to choose a sale price.
And even if it cost you, purchase anything below that price point.
And re-list at the price you have chosen.

If you have the majority of Netherweave Cloth/Bags, then most auctions listed will be at your price.
Undercuts should be relatively close to the price point you set.
But you'll still need to buy them out.

You might want a whole bunch of bags up, just before the servers go down.
To feed demand, until you get back online.
Once you're online, posting and reposting smaller batches is probably a better approach.



The demand for bags will be largest in the first week of Cataclysm.
Beyond that, it will fall sharply.
But people will continue to create new toons, so you should be able to sell most/all of the bags, eventually.



Typically, new characters reach the 58 to 68 (Outland) level bracket at 4 to 6 weeks after character creation.
Which means, a large demand for Netherweave Cloth just prior to this point.
And lots of Netherweave on the market, after this point.

However, Outland and Northrend will be relatively dead again, after the leveling bubble.

I would therefore anticipate:
a) gradual increase in demand of Netherweave.
b) a price spike near the 4-5 week point.
c) the price tanking around the 5-6 week point.
d) the price settling close to where it is now, a few months from now.

Even if you have a large surplus of Netherweave after week 1, you will likely be able to move a lot of it in Week 4 and 5.

[Ughmahedhurtz]

If you do this, and buy out all bags on the market and substitute your vastly overpriced bags as the only alternative, I'm pretty sure blizzard will smack you with the ban stick. "Exploitation of the economy" or "against the spirit of the game" or whatever you want to call it. I wouldn't care because I don't buy bags unless they're dirt cheap and I'm really, really desperate or have stupid amounts of cash sitting around doing nothing.

Wait a minute...George Soros, is that you?

[Littleburst]

If you do this, and buy out all bags on the market and substitute your vastly overpriced bags as the only alternative, I'm pretty sure blizzard will smack you with the ban stick. "Exploitation of the economy" or "against the spirit of the game" or whatever you want to call it. I wouldn't care because I don't buy bags unless they're dirt cheap and I'm really, really desperate or have stupid amounts of cash sitting around doing nothing.

Wait a minute...George Soros, is that you?

This is as far from truth as possible really. There are people who make around 10k gold each day from the auction house. people with more then 1000k gold etc etc. Controlling the bag market is just minor.

[Ughmahedhurtz]

This is as far from truth as possible really. There are people who make around 10k gold each day from the auction house. people with more then 1000k gold etc etc. Controlling the bag market is just minor.

Huh...funny. I know three people that have been given 72-hour breaks for exactly this sort of thing. One was doing it with enchanting mats, another did it with low-mid level green/blue gear and another was doing it back in the MC days with all the raid enchanting mats. I remember at the time thinking it was silly as the folks who usually listed that stuff kinda stopped putting it on the AH and just barked it in general chat, which defeated their attempt to corner the markets but they still ended up with the bans. /shrug

Guess it just depends on whether someone reports you for it.

[Starbuck_Jones]

Long time ago in a game far far away called Everquest, I controlled the terrorantual silk market on my server. I was only able to do this because I had a source of the mats that 99% of the people did not. If it wasn't for being able to farm 5 silks for every one I bought below my set market price, this would not have worked at all.

Today was something interesting in the Frostweave market on my server. Alliance side there were around 5 stacks of cloth in the 60g range. People were barking in trade for cloth in the 20-60g range. Horde side had some 150+ frostweave auctions in the 12-20g a stack range. In about 30min worth of buying on the horde, selling to through the neutral AH and reposting on the alliance side. I was able to make a quick 1200g.

When I did this, I did not worry about any sniper bots because I had plenty of cash on both factions. Buy for <20. Sell for 30 on the neutral and sold for 60 on the alliance side. If I had been sniped, I still would have made coin.

[Ualaa]

I looked into controlling a market once.

Did a bit of research, found some blue posts on this.
They said playing the market was okay, as long as you didn't gouge other players.
Going beyond 10x the normal price was too far, but up to about 10x was fine.

[Kalyse]

So I figure it will be impossible to control the Netherweave market. There is no way I can buy out the botters. And when I buy out the stock, they botters will just undercut and supply way too much cloth.

I have taken pro-active steps to get them banned.


Here is the ticket I submitted.
Will it work?
Should I post it from all 6 accounts?


Bots are running in Ramparts. All level 80 with irregular names. All in BOE blues, with lower than 100 achie points, and all having reached level 80 based on their WOW armoury feed in an inhuman speed. No professions.

I tried a /invite but it timed out (Not declined).
They all have identical 3/2/31 spec.

Server time 6am.

Example names (but there are more):
Asscxz
Wiltje
Sosokeo
Vekokok (290 kills - No other bosses)
Keldian
Akoiui
etc..

Guild name: COCOMILIBAK

Please respond with details.

http://www.dual-boxing.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=256&stc=1&d=1289021177

[Ualaa]

Doesn't hurt to alert Blizzard.
But you won't know of any disciplinary actions they take or don't take.